NFL Betting Insights, Player Props, Strategies, and Bets of the Week

Welcome to your go-to spot for all things betting! This week, we’re diving into some exciting prop bets, strategic insights, and some of my top picks to boost your betting game. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just getting started, we’ve got you covered!

By Austin Mattox | September 25, 2024

Photo by Rick Barnes/USA Today

Betting Strategy of the Week: Bankroll Management

Before we jump into specific bets, let’s talk about bankroll management. It’s crucial to establish a budget for your betting activities. Here’s a simple strategy:

1. Set Your Budget: Decide how much you’re willing to risk each week, and stick to a unit size (amount you play for each bet).

2. Unit Betting: Bet a consistent percentage (typically 1%) of your bankroll on each wager. This keeps you in the game longer, even during a rough patch.

3. Example: If your unit size is $100, and you are advised .25u on a certain play, you would play the slip for $25.

By sticking to this strategy, you’ll maintain control and minimize the risk of losing your entire bankroll in one go, which is what so many casual bettors make the mistake of doing.

Props to Consider: Player Performance Bets

1. Player Touchdowns: Look for standout players in matchups where they’re likely to find the end zone. For example, betting on a star running back like Derrick Henry to score a touchdown or go over his rushing yards line against a weak defensive line could yield great returns.

2. Over/Under on Passing Yards: If a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes is facing a secondary with injury concerns, consider betting the over on his passing yards. Mahomes is in a very good position to go over his passing yards line this week as chargers star safety, Derwin James Jr., has unironically been suspended for this weeks game against the 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs. Not to mention the fantasy production we have been seeing from Rashee Rice, who appears to be Mahomes’ #1 target.

Photo by Gareth Patterson/AP

Bets of the Week

1. Game Spread:

   • Packers vs. Vikings: With the Packers showing strong offensive stats, I’d lean toward them covering the spread at -2, even with Jordan Love being out. Malik Willis has proven himself to be a reliable #2 option at QB and can be shifty down the field and pass to several solid receivers against a not so great Vikings secondary.

2. Moneyline Bet:

   • Bills vs. Ravens: The Bills have been dominant lately, making them a solid pick at +105 on the moneyline, even against the Ravens who almost blew a lead to the cowboys last week. The Bills have a certain swagger in this league that many people are picking up on, and they seem to be doing better than ever even without their old star, Stefon Diggs.

3. Parlay Bet:

   • Combine these two bets for a better payout! A Seahawks win and a Commanders win could be a thrilling play this week, especially since the Commanders are riding their momentum over their big win against the Bengals in week 3.

4. Fantasy Sports Collab: Don’t forget about fantasy! Consider betting on player props for your fantasy picks. For instance, if you have Justin Jefferson in your lineup, consider betting the over on his receiving yards.

Photo by George Walker IV/AP

Remember, betting is about fun and strategy. Stay informed, keep your bets smart, and enjoy the process. I’m excited to see how these props perform this week!