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It's not often two teams star-swap in the midst of title contention, but that is squarely where New York and Minnesota find themselves after their trade that took place late last night. Although each side may be motivated by differing factors, they both will face similar difficulties in adapting to their new big men. All trades have an inevitable winner and loser, but I just can't quite make out who's who. Not yet, at least.
By Spencer Galloway | September 28th, 2024
Photo via NBA.com
My Loosely Thought Out Post-Trade Reactions
I have sat here for close to an hour now trying to come up with what I think could be the best way to talk about this Karl-Anthony Towns and Julius Randle trade. I thought about what lineups each team might roll out and pulled up just about every stat you can find online, but I’m not sure that’s where we’re headed today. Late last night when the news broke, not from our beloved insider Woj, but rather from his much younger, more-suave rival (now-unrivaled), Shams Charania, I declaratively stated in a text to my NBA friends (some of whom write for this site) that Julius Randle was the best player in the trade and that Minnesota won the trade for that reason. Yeah, not even I believe myself when I say that. It was just the only fun thing I could think up in the wee hours of the morning, and I had just come off of a several-hour run of watching Succession.
I thought for a moment about just getting my thoughts out onto the keyboard and being one of the first to have a great written piece on the trade, but it was late, and I knew I would have this lengthy car ride the next day to conjure something up. Frankly, I also just didn’t feel all that inspired about it. But why? Why can’t I find it in me to have a take on this? Why, when two All-NBA bigs get traded for each other just a few weeks before the start of the season, am I absolutely uninspired? That right there, speaks volumes about this trade, and the two oft-criticized bigs in question.
Towns & Randle Are More Alike Than You May Believe
Both Towns and Randle are exceptional talents, and no matter how you shake it, are no worse than top 50 guys. I, for one, would argue them to be closer to the top 30-40 range. (Even if Julius Randle has a couple “uhhh how the hell did that guy make All-NBA that year?” questions on his resume). What they are not, however, is particularly inspirational. Now, I don’t frequent the streets of Minneapolis or Manhattan, but I do frequent a little place called NBA Twitter. I know that they are out there, but there are not a lot of people whose favorite player is either Towns or Randle. They are both historically frustrating players in their own right, for the fact that at times they leave you dazzled and amazed by their talents, and at others, they leave you wanting to drive them to the airport. There needs to be a term for this, like Marcus Smart-syndrome, or something like that. I’ll workshop it.
On their best nights, each of them can beat you in a number of ways. Nerds are more inclined to favor KAT, and rightfully so. He has perhaps the most charming skill a true seven-footer can have, as he shoots over 40% from three. Although it doesn’t feel as meaningful when self-declared, Towns is, truly, the best shooting-big man of all time. He shot roughly 10 percentage points higher than Randle from both three-point range (41.6%) and the free-throw line (87.3%) last season.
For as tremendous of a shooter Towns is, he is not without flaws. At times this year, it felt as though Minnesota was better positioned to close games with their 6MOTY candidate Naz Reid. The lows with Towns can be really low, but the highs are, well higher. (This is where I’d use a buzzword like “exhilarating” or “euphoric”, but there’s nothing euphoric about watching Karl Towns play basketball.)
Randle, on the other hand, a talented shooter in certain, much more narrow contexts, is very versatile inside the arc and found himself in the middle of a 24/9/5 season on 47/31/78 splits, before it came to a sudden halt due to injury that kept him out all the way through the Knicks playoff run.
The Other Guys: How Brunson and Edwards Fit In Alongside Their New Partners
What does it say about Julius Randle that the Knicks didn’t seem to miss much of a beat on their way to a conference-semis matchup against the Pacers, which could have gone differently if they simply were healthier? Perhaps more importantly, what does it say about Randle that his star counterpart Jalen Brunson reached new heights in his absence, turning MSG into a basketball cathedral on most nights during their playoff run?
Brunson has catapulted himself into conversations that he may not have had if Randle was still active for that run, and perhaps the Knicks brass feels as though a Brunson-led experience could be further complimented by the sharpshooting of Karl Towns, rather than the bruising paint presence of Randle. When looking at a shot chart of Brunson, with and without Randle, it is quite telling.
Just in case you’ve never looked at a shot chart before, or are unfamiliar with StatMuse (Bigger polygons = more shots, smaller polygons = fewer shots) (Darker polygons = better FG%, lighter polygons = worse FG%)
With Randle:
Without Randle:
They say a picture says a thousand words, well, the shot chart doesn’t say that many but it says a few. It’s saying “Holy shit! Brunson is a totally badass paint scorer and opens up his entire bag when he has that made available to him.”
Okay, for those of you who are saying “What the hell, I came here to read about KAT and Randle, and I’m getting beat over the head with Brunson stuff” firstly, I ask why? Secondly, we’re getting there. I got nothin’ but an open laptop, an underperforming WiFi hotspot, and what’s left of my now watered-down coffee, and time. Plus, this will lead nicely into the other budding superstar who’s greatly impacted by this conundrum. Imagine all that Rudy Gobert can do now become now that he won’t have KAT in his way. Just kidding!
Anthony Edwards is, of course, the other star in question here, as he just put together the most impressive season to date in his young career. You would imagine that Edwards and Towns putting it together this season, and making it all the way to the conference finals would have been reason enough for the Wolves to want to run it back. There are three big letters that may have pushed Minnesota’s front office in this direction however, that of course being the CBA (collective bargaining agreement) and its modifications to include increased penalties for those who so dare and cross the league’s strict second-apron tax level (~$190M).
Photo by Abbie Parr/AP Photo
New York, It's Time To Pay Up
Karl Towns’ latest contract, in its final year, will more than double the total of what Julius Randle is set to earn in this upcoming season ($28.9M). Randle’s deal also provides more flexibility in terms of timing as well. He has a player option after this season and depending on how this next year goes, it will be interesting to see if the two sides extend it at a lower number than what was promised to Towns.
Minnesota is not New York, and the Wolves do no not have the financial flexibility to pay two guys upwards of $50M+ a season, just as Anthony Edwards is set to earn in the final two years of his 5 year, $242M deal. They also do not have the most defined or established ownership in place. Glen Taylor is still their owner (I think?), but remember when A-Rod and his guys were coming in to swoop it up for pennies on the dollar? Then Michael Jordan sold the Hornets for more than anyone had imagined possible, the Suns were promptly paid for in full by the trade-happy Matt Ishbia, and now Taylor is sitting thinking “No way I’m letting go of this thing for less than Charlotte!”
Photo by Nick Wosika-USA Today Sports
The ownership and financial pickle that the Wolves are in has Anthony Edwards squarely in the middle of it all, and depending on how this iteration of the team goes, could lead us down some familiar territory involving a young star vying for greener pastures. I’m not saying that’s where we are, frankly, we aren’t even close to that point, but these things happen fast. The Wolves are still in a great position to be towards the top of the West, but the path is less clear than it was a year ago. Gobert was in and out of the lineup down the stretch of Wolves’ playoff games (and straight up did not play at times for France in the Olympics for that matter), and they just sent their best shooter packing.
So Long, 'Nova Knicks
Lost somewhere in all of this is Donte DiVincenzo, the shortest-lived member of the ‘Nova Knicks, who did in fact play some of the best ball of his career for the Knicks this playoffs. Timely shotmaking from Donte took the roof off MSG at times, and if he can replicate that for Minnesota on a nightly basis, this trade will begin to swing in the Wolves’ favor. DiVincenzo ripped off 17.8 points a night for New York in these playoffs, shooting greater than 42% from range. Similarly to how he played off of Brunson, he will earn a lot of great looks standing opposite of Ant Edwards.
I’ve seen a number of click-baity posts declaring that the Knicks now have the best starting five in basketball, and to that I say, “All it took was KAT?”. I mean really, no one would have said that about them last week, not even Knicks fans. They make a slightly meaningful upgrade, and now I have to declare that the East runs through them? Yeah, right. I know I need not remind anyone about the Boston Celtics, but with Porzingis likely out through December, they STILL have a better five than New York.
The Knicks Are... Back?
I must say though, I love when New York is relevant. Their propaganda is so good, that I truly can’t get enough of it. I may even use this new-look Knicks squad as an excuse to see a game at MSG this year, just to see Knicks fans spew incredulous levels of hate at their new star when he's having a KAT moment. I didn’t even get to one of my main points in that Towns is not a super ideal Knick. Much like Paul George is not an ideal 76er. It takes a certain type of guy to make it in those cities, then again, KAT is wildly popular as is and has had to sit through his voice-changing compilations for some years now.
Entering this fast-approaching season, Randle and the Wolves, along with Towns and the Knicks, are all facing new anxieties and pressures to perform. We know how these things go though, and two teams with title hopes making a star for star trade is bound to have a winner of the trade declared at some point. For as much pondering as we will be left to do between now and opening tip, we won’t truly know until it plays out on the floor.