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As we dive into Week 4 of the NFL season, it’s crucial to assess the landscape of fantasy football with an analytical lens. With injuries, matchups, and player performances constantly shifting, understanding the potential upside for fantasy players can set you apart in your leagues by a large margin. I’ll explore some key players to watch and how positive expected value (+EV) betting strategies, along with correlations between passing and receiving yards, can lead to success in both fantasy leagues and profitable sports betting.
By Austin Mattox | September 26, 2024
Photo from USA Today Sports
The Fantasy Landscape for Week 4
Emerging Stars and Matchup Analysis
Week 4 presents intriguing matchups that could significantly impact fantasy outcomes. It is key to look for players facing weak defenses (hint: Cowboys run defense) or those with favorable historical matchups. For instance, a quarterback facing a secondary that has consistently struggled against the pass can be a goldmine. Pairing this quarterback with their top receiver can maximize potential points through correlated statistics. A prime example of this that has worked for me has been the Kyler and Marvin Harrison Jr. connection. They have been elite together despite Marvin struggling heavily in week 1. This works for fantasy football just as it would work for a sports bet in which case you would pair the two overs with passing/receiving yards.
Buy or Sell: Week 4 Fantasy Players
As we gear up for Week 4, here are some key players to consider buying or selling based on current trends and matchups.
1. Buy Chris Olave
Despite modest numbers (2/11/0, 4/81/0), Olave's underlying usage is impressive, boasting a 40% target share against the Cowboys. He's currently ranked 20th in Yards Per Route Run. With the Eagles’ secondary giving up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers, now’s the time to snag Olave before his value skyrockets.
Trade Targets: Mike Evans, Kyren Williams, Josh Jacobs
2. Buy Tank Dell
While Dell trails in target share (17.1%) behind Nico Collins, his impressive 14.4-yard average depth of target suggests high upside. If C.J. Stroud connects on a deep throw, Dell’s potential could explode. This is a great time to buy low.
Trade Targets: Joe Mixon, Travis Etienne, Jaylen Waddle
3. Sell J.K. Dobbins
Dobbins has made a splash with his efficiency, ranking high in missed tackles and yards per carry. However, upcoming tough matchups may hinder his production. With a limited share of the Ravens’ carries, now might be a good time to gauge trade interest.
Trade Targets: Ja'Marr Chase, D.J. Moore, A.J. Brown, Chris Olave
4. Buy De’Von Achane
Achane leads the Dolphins in touches despite concerns over Tua Tagovailoa’s status. His target share remains solid, and with injuries to other running backs, he should have a steady role moving forward.
Trade Targets: Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Kyren Williams
5. Sell Jaylen Waddle
Waddle’s production has suffered with backup quarterbacks, and his target share has dropped significantly. If things don’t improve, he might be the odd one out in Miami’s offense. Now could be the best time to trade him.
Trade Targets: Joe Mixon, Travis Etienne, James Conner
Photo by Jasen Vinlove/Imagn Images
6. Buy Tony Pollard
Pollard has dominated the backfield even with Tyjae Spears around, and with a favorable upcoming schedule, his floor is set to rise. He’s a solid buy for teams looking to strengthen their running game.
Trade Targets: Rachaad White, Terry McLaurin, Kyle Pitts
7. Sell Kyren Williams
Williams has had plenty of opportunities but lacks explosive plays. With the Rams’ offense struggling, his value may not hold. Shopping him around now could yield better returns.
Trade Targets: D.J. Moore, A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel
8. Sell Terry McLaurin
McLaurin has a decent target share, but with a backup quarterback, his value may decline. Trading him now could still yield something valuable before his production potentially drops off.
Trade Targets: Diontae Johnson, Dalton Kincaid, Zack Moss
9. Buy Brian Robinson Jr.
Robinson has taken control of Washington’s backfield, showing both volume and efficiency. With consistent usage and a knack for scoring, he’s a solid RB2/3 moving forward, especially with Austin Ekeler facing a potential injury.
Trade Targets: Najee Harris, Amari Cooper
Photo by Geoff Burke/USA Today Sports
10. Buy Ja’Marr Chase
Chase has struggled early in the season, making him a prime buy-low candidate. His target share is down, but historically, he performs better than his current numbers suggest. This is a rare chance to acquire a top-tier player at a discount.
Trade Targets: Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, Travis Kelce
*Credit to Establish The Run for these buy and sell targets that hold high value for any fantasy manager wanting to be successful.
Understanding Positive EV
Positive +EV betting is a concept that revolves around finding bets that have a greater chance of winning than the odds suggest. In fantasy football, this translates to identifying players who are undervalued based on their potential output. For example, if a wide receiver has a high target share but is projected for lower receiving yards, that discrepancy is indicative of it being positive EV.
When applying this to fantasy lineups, focusing on players who are in favorable matchups and have shown the ability to generate yards and touchdowns can significantly enhance your chances of success – Do not just look at the fantasy points projection to determine who goes into your lineup, I learned the hard way. By utilizing data and statistics, you can make informed decisions that lead to positive outcomes, both in betting and in fantasy leagues.
The Correlation Between Passing and Receiving Yards
One of the most effective strategies I’ve adopted is analyzing the correlation between a quarterback’s passing yards and their receivers’ receiving yards and touchdowns. Historical data shows that quarterbacks who exceed certain yardage thresholds often propel their receivers into high-scoring territories. For instance, a quarterback throwing for over 300 yards typically indicates multiple receivers benefiting from that volume, leading to increased fantasy points across the board.
Key Metrics to Monitor:
Passing Yards: Track quarterbacks who are consistently throwing for high yardage; this often translates to increased opportunities for receivers.
Receiving Touchdowns: Focus on receivers who not only get targets but also have a track record of finding the end zone, especially in high-scoring games.
As we prepare for Week 4, leveraging a combination of matchup analysis, positive EV principles, and understanding the correlation between passing and receiving stats can set you on the path to fantasy success. By keeping an eye on favorable matchups and under-the-radar players, you can enhance your roster and improve your betting strategies.
Remember, fantasy football is as much about strategy as it is about passion. By integrating analytical approaches with your knowledge of the game, you’ll not only improve your fantasy performance but also elevate your betting game. Good luck this week, and let’s make the most of our opportunities on the field!