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By Dante Campione | September 12, 2024
Photo by Harry Scull Jr./Buffalo News
NFL football is finally back! Week 1 was full of surprises and left some fantasy owners in a frenzy after starting off the year with a loss. Many of us are frantically scouring the waiver wire for this year’s breakout star or blowing up our league mates’ inboxes, desperate to get rid of last week's bust. But don’t panic just yet, we’re going to take a deep dive into who to hit the panic button on, and who to be patient with. It’s easy to overreact after months of anticipation, only to watch your player drop a meager 3.5 points in Week 1 (yes, Drake London, we’re talking about you). We’ll get into the negatives later, let’s highlight some of Week 1’s biggest winners.
Week 1 Winners
Cooper Kupp 32.0 Points
Photo by ESPN
Kupp commanded a whopping 21 targets, for 14 catches and 110 yards. Kupp rewinded the clock on Sunday night to 2021 where he led all wide receivers in every category and dominated the entire league. I’m not saying he will win the Triple Crown again, but expect Kupp’s volume to remain the same for as long as Puka Nacua is sidelined.
Jayden Reed 33.1 Points
Reed finished as the number one receiver in week one, hauling in 4 catches for 138 yards and a touchdown, paired with a 33-yard rushing touchdown. Anyone who started Reed was on top of the world until his beloved quarterback, Jordan Love, exited the game with a knee injury. Now, Reed’s value is going to take a dip with Malik Willis at the helm, so I’d pump the breaks and sit him until Love returns.
Saquon Barkley 33.2 Points
Barkley did not disappoint in his Eagles debut putting up an impressive line of 109 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground, and 2 catches for 23 yards and another touchdown through the air. Who knew giving this guy a competent offensive line would lead to more production? Saquon is going to be in the RB1 overall race for the entire season and is cemented into every manager's RB1 spot going forward. Saquon looks to stay hot in prime time Monday night at home vs the Falcons.
Josh Allen 31.2 Points
Photo by ESPN
No surprises here, as the QB1 of 4 of the last 5 seasons leads the way amongst all QBs in week 1. Allen completed 18 of 23 passes for 232 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air, while rushing for 39 yards and 2 more touchdowns on the ground. I mean, did we expect anything less? After a rocky start in the first half, Allen found his groove in the second half leading the Bills to their first win; leaving a lot of fantasy managers satisfied. Look for Allen to keep the trend going and put up top 3 numbers Thursday night against the Dolphins.
Baker Mayfield 29.7 Points
Although Baker was outscored by Allen, he was the most impressive QB in week 1. The former Heisman completed 24 of 30 pass attempts for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns while adding 21 rushing yards to his line Sunday afternoon, without turning the ball over. Baker picked up right where he left off last season after leading the Bucs to the playoffs his first year as their starter; it’s nice to see he’s found a home in Tampa Bay. Ride the hot hand with Bake but proceed with caution, as he takes on a less forgiving defense on the road in Detroit.
Week 1 Losers
Johnathan Taylor - 10.6 points - Panic Meter: 3/10
Photo by ESPN
Taylor rushed for a disappointing 48 yards on 16 attempts while not receiving a single target. Yes, 10.8 points isn’t horrible, but most people spent a first or second-round pick on him and were left a little rattled after Sunday’s showing from JT. Although the stat line isn’t pretty, Taylor has zero competition for carries as he was on the field for 96% of snaps. He was also denied on the 2-yard line late in the game, followed by an Anthony Richardson rushing touchdown the very next play. The only real concern I have here is his quarterback taking some goal-line work, and him not being involved in the pass game whatsoever. Going forward I still expect Richardson to vulture a couple of goal-line TDs here and there, and to run instead of check down to Taylor, so his upside is still limited. The Colts just could not establish the run in this game while they spent the majority of the time trailing, and getting yards from huge chunk plays through the air. I expect this team to establish the run game early going forward and give their workhorse back 18-24 touches a game. Hold onto Taylor, and expect a big week 2 as he goes up against the defense that just let Saquon run all over them.
Dalton Kincaid - 2.1 Points - Panic Meter: 4/10
A lot of us who drafted Kincaid were saddened to see his involvement in this offense, after spending early capital to draft him this year anticipating his break-out season. Now take this advice as you will because I am a full-blown Dalton Kincaid truther and grabbed him in every league I could. With that being said, he put up a depressing line of 1 catch for 11 yards on 2 targets. With Diggs leaving and the Bills not doing much to add to their offense this offseason, Kincaid seemed like he’d be Allen’s go-to guy after an impressive rookie season. I think this is still the case, as Kincaid was on the field for 84% of snaps, running routes on 83% of those plays. It seemed that Arizona came prepared and game-planned around shutting down Kincaid, as he was double-teamed a significant amount throughout the game. Although the game script wasn’t in Dalton’s favor, I still believe Kincaid is, in fact, really good at football and they want to get him involved, he just has to get open. Dawson Knox also does not concern me at all, this team has proven over and over he is not their guy, as he only saw the field half the time. Do not trade Kincaid, ride the low of this week and expect a bounce-back game against Miami on Thursday night.
Drake London - 3.5 Points - Panic Meter: 6/10
Once again, another guy I have rostered in too many leagues to even count. Drake had fantasy managers in their feelings after hauling in 2 of 3 targets for a measly 15 yards. The former 8th overall pick finally got someone to throw him the ball this offseason and his 3rd-year breakout was highly anticipated, as he proceeded to let us all down this weekend. The main takeaway from this game is that Kirk Cousins simply did not look good at all in his first game back from his Achilles injury. The nice thing about Kirk is he is known for throwing the ball a ton and getting his playmakers the ball, and we can only hope that Kirk can be serviceable moving forward. Not to mention this is a completely new offense and they are still working out some kinks. On top of all that, they played arguably the most suffocating defense in their league, where TJ Watt applied pressure to Cousins 16.7% of the time during this game. Needless to say, this was an uphill battle from the start, and with easier defensive matchups coming up, I expect the pass attempts and overall play of this offense to only go up from here. The main concern for London’s outlook the rest of the season for me is Kirk Cousins, outside of that I kind of expected a slow start. With all that being said, do not sell low on London. Look for him to bounce back as he goes up against a shaky Eagles defense on the road Monday night.
Marvin Harrison Jr. - 1.4 Points - Panic Meter: 5/10
Photo by ESPN (sorry ESPN, we are just yoinking pics from your site... keep it up!)
Despite being the first receiver off the board in this year's NFL draft and dominating at Ohio State, Marvin Harrison Jr. struggled immensely in his debut for the Red Sea. Maserati Marv gave us only 1 catch for 4 yards on 3 targets and fantasy managers are not happy after investing highly in the rookie. Marv looked slow, could not separate, and struggled to get off the line in man coverage. Despite all of that, I still like Marv a lot this year and attribute most of this to the weather conditions in Buffalo, and the fact it was his first game in the NFL. What’s nice for Marv is that he was on the field for 90% of snaps, which is 30-40% higher than most rookie receivers for the better half of their first season. Kyler seemed a bit jittery in the pocket and chose to run or dump down rather than letting the play develop and giving his playmakers the chance to get open. No one on either side of the ball seemed to have a great game receiving so I’m chalking this game up as “week 1 struggles” and giving Marv another chance before I freak out. Once again, don’t sell low on this guy, look to roll out Marv in a slightly easier matchup at home vs the Rams.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 4.3 Points - Panic Meter 2/10
After finishing last year as the WR3 in fantasy, Amon-Ra probably lost a decent amount of people in their matchups on Sunday night. The sun god put up a line of 3 catches on 6 targets, for 13 yards and didn’t find the end zone. Although his stat line says otherwise, Jared Goff was looking for his boy throughout the game as he finished second on the team in targets, but only being able to connect on 3 of them. The good news is, Amon only put up less than 12 points only one-time last year and had less than 5 catches twice. St. Brown thrives off of volume and when he doesn’t get it, we pray he finds the end zone to keep from having a bust week. The only one who had a decent game for the Lions was Jameson Williams, as Sam LaPorta also struggled in this outing. Even if Williams is more involved in this offense this year I still believe Amon-Ra will bring in over 100 catches and finish as a top 5 receiver, this offense runs through him. The Lions made this abundantly clear when they extended Amon this offseason to a 4-year deal of $120 million making him the 4th highest-paid pass catcher in the league, I doubt they’re looking to throw him the ball less going forward. Hold onto St. Brown for another week, where I will guarantee he goes for 100+ yards against Tampa Bay at home, or your money back.
Thursday Night Football Preview
Photo from Bills Wire
In the second Thursday night game of the year, two exciting offenses face off, both looking to improve to 2-0. Finally, the NFL listened and is giving us some real matchups to watch on Thursday nights! This game is loaded with fantasy implications and some tempting player props and game lines for those wanting to partake in a little bit of degeneracy. Let’s take a look at Thursday night’s showdown.
Injury Report
The only significant injuries to keep an eye on in this game are Mostert (chest) who has been ruled out, Achane (ankle) who is a game-time decision, and Allen (hand) who was cleared to play earlier this week. Achane exploded for 23 points against Jacksonville on Sunday but exited early after limping off the field with an ankle injury. If Achane is not able to go, next in line are Jeff Wilson and Jaylen Wright. I assume Wilson will take most of the groundwork and Wright to be used in the pass game so I prefer Wright slightly. If you have depth at running back, I would look elsewhere and avoid both.
Player Props
Jaylen Waddle - Waddle was inches away from a touchdown but came up 2 yards short, and had a 63-yard reception that he almost broke for another touchdown. Waddle was so close to 2 touchdowns Sunday but I like him to find the end zone vs the Bills, I will be taking Waddle to score the first TD of the game at +950. I also like Waddle to hit his over/under on receiving yards, set at 64.5. Make sure to start Waddle this week as he’s in line for a big game as Buffalo game plans to contain Tyreek Hill.
Dalton Kincaid - I told you I was in on this guy! Kincaid will lead all Bills receivers in yards this week as his line is only set at 44.5 yards. I will be hammering that and heavily considering sprinkling in his anytime TD prop at +210. Don’t overthink it, Kincaid is a lineup lock this week. You’ll thank me later, bro.
James Cook - The Dolphins defense seemed to contain Jacksonville’s run game so I’m a little hesitant to pull the trigger on Cook’s line at 61.5. On the other hand, Cook commanded that backfield and had 19 rushing attempts. His line is set at 14.5 attempts, I’m taking that all day long.
Josh Allen - The Dolphins always struggle to stop Josh Allen and I like that trend to continue in this game. Allen’s Pass+Rec+Rush line is set at 2.5 which I like a lot, as well as his rushing attempts to be over 8.5. 299.5 passing yards is a lot and I’ll be staying away, but his rushing yards at 38.5 is basically free as he hit that in 5/5 games to finish off last year, and last week with 39.
Tua Tagovailoa - The Dolphins will keep up with the Bills offense all night with their pass game since their backfield is banged up, give me Tua over 33.5 passing attempts. They don’t call him “Tua Turntheballova” for nothing, so I’ll be taking his over on INT’s as well at .5. If you’re in a deeper league, give Tua the nod as your QB1 for the week.
Prediction
The Bills' fast-paced offense proves to be too much for the Dolphins, as Buffalo secures their first road win of the year, outlasting Miami in a thrilling 28-27 shootout. The Dolphins keep it close, covering the +2.5 spread giving them their first loss in their second game at home. These dynamic offenses steal the show, easily going over the 48.5-point total as we get our most exciting Thursday night game thus far.
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