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As the NBA Finals nears, Will Glover provides his best bets, bold takes, and series predictions.
By Will Glover | June 3, 2024
Photo by WCVB5/ABC Boston
We are TWO (almost) days away from the highly anticipated NBA Finals between the Dallas Mavericks and the Boston Celtics. That means we only have two more days to choose and place the bets we think will net us the most bang for our buck. And here I am, ready and able to help you place those bets! But before we place those bets, we need to look at the storylines that may affect the books. Here we go!
Two MVP Finalists Squaring Off
Photo by Tim Heitman/Getty Images
First, it is important to note that this is the first time since the 2016 NBA Finals that we see two MVP Finalists face off (Tatum deserved more love than he got, argue with a wall). I believe that these two MVP-level players will set the tone for their respective squads throughout the series... especially Jayson Tatum. Jayson Tatum now plays in his second NBA Finals and has the weight of the world on his shoulders, if he is unable to overcome his "Playoff Choker" allegations, the future looks unkind for any chance at a Finals victory in the future. If Tatum lets the outside noise in, look for the cold-blooded killer, Luka Doncic, to take full advantage and dominate the series. Doncic is proven to be more aggressive and intelligent in high-leverage situations than Tatum has been recently; however, that doesn't mean Tatum can't change his ways. I do expect this matchup to be one of the best matchups in recent Finals memory and their overall performance will truly be determined by their supporting casts.
Advantage: Luka Doncic - for not having the "Playoff Choker" allegations hanging over his head.
The People Versus Kyrie Irving and Kristaps Porzingis
Photo by Michael Swensen/Boston Globe
This story arc is one of my favorite Finals arcs of all time. Two former stars who brought promise and championship aspirations to their respective cities, only for them to want out and leave on bad terms. Kyrie being the worst offender of the two. It is worth mentioning that Kristaps and Luka have had "beef" in the past and never really figured it out... that plus constant injuries plaguing Porzingis and it was quickly wraps in Dallas for KP. Plus, I don't think KP enjoyed essentially being a part of a trade that was a salary dump for Dallas... pretty disrespectful if you ask me.
Advantage: The City of Boston - get ready for 2-4 games of pure hell in TD Garden.
Second Fiddles
Photo by Trevor Ruszkowski/USA Today Sports
Figures that this would be the second time I heavily write about Kyrie in this article. Kyrie is probably sick and tired of being mentioned second... or maybe he has grown up? Whatever the verdict is, it seems that Kyrie has gotten over the fact that he might be one of the greatest second options in NBA history. It was clear during his time in Cleveland, Boston, and Brooklyn that he was a much better second option than he ever was as a primary one. I can't explain why this is, it's just how it is, and I am completely ok with that... and so should Kyrie. After all... being second fiddle is what has gotten Kyrie to his third NBA Finals. Now we move onto the other notable second fiddle, Jaylen Brown. Brown, arguably a better playoff performer than his leader, has been second in command to Tatum pretty much his entire career. JB has consistently outperformed and straight up carried the Celtics to many playoff series wins, including the 2024 Eastern Conference Finals, which he was honored with MVP for the series. It will be interesting to see if Brown can continue his stellar playoff play in the Finals... the Celtics will almost certainly need his solid performances to compete with Dallas.
Advantage: Kyrie Irving - even at a disadvantage in the last section, he is still the best second fiddle since 2000-02 Kobe Bryant.
Role Player Reliability
Photo courtesy of Dallas Mavericks
Our last storyline to follow in these 2024 NBA Finals is each team's bench play. Throughout the playoffs, the Celtics' and Maverick's bench has been a crucial factor to each team's successes. Both benches are top 5 in Plus/Minus, FG%, and 3PT%, and while being under-utilized (it's the playoffs to be fair), these bench units are still fresh and reliable and ready for another 6-7 games to end the season. It will be interesting to see how each bench plays against each other, even in limited action. It is worth noting here that KP will be back and hopefully ready to play by Game 2 at the absolute latest... Horford will be moving back to that bench role he has been seen at for a while now... could be a game-changer for the Celtics.
Advantage: Dallas Mavericks - even with Horford there... Dallas' bench unit has performed better than Boston's... it's close, but the edge goes to the Mavs.
My Favorite Bets for the Series
So now that we have the storylines out of the way, let me quickly introduce my NBA Finals Picks to Click (I'm not explaining my reasoning):
Dallas Mavericks Outright Winners (+175 odds via DraftKings)
Jayson Tatum to Average 3+ Threes in the Series (+200)
Luka Doncic to Score 45+ points in any Finals game (+150)
Derrick White to Record 4+ Assists in each Finals game (+380)
Finals MVP
Photo by David Berding/Getty Images
Luka Doncic (+205)
Not much else to be said here... best player on the Championship winning team... Luka will ball out and deliver Dallas their first title since 2011.
My Winners
If my last picks didn't give it away, I clearly have the Mavericks winning. The Mavericks have the edge over the Celtics on the bench and where they lack experience, they have their silent leader in Kyrie Irving (and even Luka) to guide them as they play the seven hardest games of their young careers.
Conclusion
The 2024 NBA Finals will be (hopefully) a very memorable Finals. We have so many storylines that are just absolute cinema and should be great to follow as the Finals progress. I firmly believe that Kyrie gets his second ring; however, don't be surprised if you see a different version of Jayson Tatum come out (finally) and absolutely dominate. The way Dallas embarrassed the best defensive team in the league last round should not make Celtics fans feel well. Again, it will come down to the better second fiddle and the benches. This Finals is looking to be a classic (not as good as 2016 of course).