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By Will Glover | May 18th, 2024
Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images
So sorry for not publishing as much as we would like, writing will ramp up soon, trust me bro. Anyways, let's begin with what the title says I am supposed to talk about...
Almost 2 months have elapsed in the 2024 MLB Season and there have been a lot of expected, surprising, and disappointing performances individually and organizationally. As teams settle into the rhythm of the season, we are beginning to see narratives unfold that are shaping the landscape of Major League Baseball. Preseason favorites are either living up to their hype or falling short, while underdogs are making unexpected runs and causing a stir amongst their opponents and fans alike. Individual players, from rookies to veterans, are delivering standout performances that defy expectations, while others struggle to find their form. This dynamic mix of triumphs and setbacks are creating compelling stories that promise an exciting and unpredictable remainder of the season. In this article, we will dive into the key highlights, standout players, and significant moments that have defined the early part of the 2024 MLB season. I will format this piece by first giving you my "Expected Performances" - this will lay out what I expected to happen preseason. My "Surprising Performances" and "Disappointing Performances" will follow. All of these will be from my point of view and biases, so some of my opinions will not be formed by facts and stats and you will just have to deal with that... let's begin!
Expected Performances
The Los Angeles Dodgers
Photo by Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times
I mean... if you asked 50 baseball fans, before the season began, where the Dodgers would be around late May, I promise you all 50 of them (objective opinions) would have said that the Dodgers would be in first place in the NL West and most likely top 3 in overall performance. And wouldn't you know it? The Dodgers are exactly that. Led by their newly acquired star, Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers currently sit at 13 games above .500 (as of May 18th) and are 1st in team offensive WAR, 5th in team ERA, and 3rd in team defensive efficiency. This shouldn't surprise anyone, especially since this team has the luxury to trot out 3 MVPs in their prime at 1, 2, and 3 in their order while having current, former, or future all-stars in the 4 through 8 slots... I mean, is it even fair at this point? The most insane part is that their bullpen is arguably their weakest spot and they are still a top 5 bullpen in the league. I don't see them winning the World Series oddly enough, they have acquired the Trout curse from Ohtani and Dave Roberts is still at the helm of this team. First round out again.
Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and the New York Yankees
Photo by Matt Krohn/USA Today Sports
If you recall to my early April article, I mentioned that the Yankees are legit contenders, and not to toot my own horn but I cooked. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto leading this team to first place in the toughest division in baseball have a lot to do with their success; however, the surprising production of Anthony Volpe (top 10 in WAR) and Alex Verdugo have helped the Yankees to be consistent behind the 2nd best duo in the MLB (behind the aforementioned Ohtani and Betts of course). Not only has their offense been elite but their pitching backed by their elite defense has been a pleasant surprise as well considering all the injuries they have endured in the early season. The YES Network reported today that the Yankees should be expecting LeMahieu, Kahnle, and Cole back very soon, which will only make this team much better. If the Yankees can somehow avoid the injury curse that they have been battling for over a decade, then they can (and will) make serious noise come October/November.
Surprising Performances
The AL Central - More Specifically the Cleveland Guardians
Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
This one is more of a pleasant surprise... especially considering the fact that the AL Central has been the worst division in baseball for the majority of the last decade. Headlined by the Cleveland Guardians, the Central features 4 teams that are sitting above .500 right now. Just remember to ignore the White Sox when considering the other 4... the White Sox are miserable all around. The biggest surprise within this division is the Cleveland Guardians. Entering the season, I looked at an Opening Day that featured Ramon Laureano and David Fry in the 3 and 5 spots and instantly chalked them off for another mediocre season. And while their offense hasn't been elite, it has been serviceable enough to let their pitching and defense truly take over and dominate their competition. Now I am not too positive the Guardians (or any other Central team) will have what it takes to make a deep postseason push but that doesn't mean much in baseball (see 2023 DBacks, 2022 Phillies, 2019 Nationals, etc...). So keep your eyes on the Guardians and the rest of the AL Central except the White Sox... please do not watch a White Sox game. It is truly a painful experience.
Mason Miller
Photo by Godofredo A. Vasquez/AP Photo
The rise of Mason Miller has been something to witness. The 25-year-old from Gardner-Webb University (shoutout) is having a historic season so far. He currently has an ERA- of 27 (ERA+ of 397 for those who don't use Fangraphs) and leads all of baseball in several advanced metrics like xERA, xBA, vFA, K%, Whiff %, and Hard-Hit%. I want to make a note about his vFA (Average Fastball Velocity). Last season, Miller's average fastball velocity was 98.6mph, impressive. This season, Miller has upped his fastball to an average of 101.3mph, insane. I would be a liar if I said I had any idea of how he has done this, but the improvement has been night and day for Miller. I attribute his rise in fastball velocity to his significant drop in ERA (3.78 last season to 0.98 this season) and his significant rise in K/9 (10.26 last season to 18.65 this season). It's pretty easy to dominate your competition when you are throwing the ball 100-105mph every time... not even the greatest hitters in the league can square that up consistently.
Disappointing Performances
The St. Louis Cardinals
Photo by Jeff Curry/USA Today Sports
Obviously. This team has been absolutely miserable top-down. It feels as if the player development, front office, and management departments are all doing their own thing and then are surprised when they can't muster 3 runs in a game and lose 4-2 every night. It doesn't help when their 2 Hall of Famers are both hitting under .250/.300/.400 in the middle of the order. It also doesn't help when 2 of their gold glovers are injured for the first 2 months of the season. The Cardinals' only bright spots have both been extinguished by poor coaching (just watch what they did to my dawg Willson). The injury to Contreras is devastating; however, it isn't the end of the world for the Cardinals. It gives more time for Ivan Herrera (the one who was supposed to replace Yadi originally) to develop and work with the ML pitching staff in St. Louis. The other bright spot for the Cardinals is their pitching staff... shocker. While the base stats like ERA and W/L record don't help this staff, their advanced metrics remain at the tops of the league, they're just getting extremely unlucky and it doesn't help that your offense is dead last in home runs, batting average with runners in scoring position, and pretty much every other offensive category. Oh, I also forgot to mention that their closer, Ryan Helsley, who is one of the best in the league, has had a save for 13 (1st in the MLB) of the Cardinals' 19 wins... miserable. This Cardinals team isn't finished yet, if they can figure out their offensive struggles, their pitching and defense can get them to a Wild Card spot. The Cards have their work cut out for them.
The Teams That Play in Texas
Photo by Godofredo A. Vasquez/AP Photo
You know these 2 had to be here. The Texas teams featured in last season's ALCS are now both under .500 2 months into the season. Again I will say that it isn't time to panic for either team, especially for the Astros; however, to say their early-season performances haven't been disappointing would be a lie. The major concern for the Rangers is the fact that they are playing to the level of their competition, currently 12-10 against teams above .500 and 11-13 against teams under .500. The Astros are the complete opposite. The Stros are not competing against the MLB's best, currently sporting a miserable 11-22 record against teams above .500. This is cause for concern for Houston, obviously. If you can't beat the league's best, you won't be playing against them in October. The good news for the Astros is that they are currently on a 6-game win streak and are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Baseball is best when the Texas teams are competing and I expect both teams to get back to their title-defending ways shortly.
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