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A deep dive into advanced stats, and what they say about the favorites for the 2023-24 NBA Awards, including this year's NBA MVP and Rookie of the Year races.
By Will Glover | March 18th, 2024
With just under a month left in the 2023-24 NBA regular season, there are still no front-runners in any major award race (with one exception). In times past, MVP, DPOY, and other races have been decided back in December with memorable performances of old like Joel Embiid's historically dominant and efficient 2022-23 MVP season (free throw merchant). However, this season, it seems that everyone has a different MVP, DPOY, even ROTY. Today, I am going to give you my 23-24 regular season award predictions and why I believe my picks are deserving of the awards.
Before I begin, it is important to understand that these are my picks and that I too have biases and narratives that I need to feed... enjoy!
MVP: Nikola Jokić - Denver Nuggets
Runner-Up: Luka Dončić - Dallas Mavericks
The Eye Test: I feel as if this race should be closer considering Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Dončić, and Jayson Tatum are all having exceptional seasons, leading their respective teams to tons of success while putting up video game numbers. However, like many times in the past, Jokić's ability to take over games without scoring and just flat-out dominate each opponent he plays is mainly my surface-level opinion on why he deserves it and why he should win the MVP. There isn't much else to say here...
For the Nerds: If you take a look at the advanced analytics (my favorite part of sports stat-tracking), you will see that the MVP race really isn't close... I'll give you the four most important stats to back up this claim:
Jokić leads the league in Box Plus/Minus (BPM) with 13.6 BPM. Box Plus/Minus essentially is a metric "that estimates a basketball player's contribution to the team when that player is on the court" (Basketball Reference).
Jokić leads the league in Win Shares, another stat that calculates a player's value by estimating how many total wins a player has brought to a team. He currently leads the league with 14.0 and 15 games remaining.
Jokić leads the league in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) at 8.8 (SGA in 2nd at 6.7). I know this is getting repetitive at this point; however, Jokić leading in another value statistic just shows how dominant he has been compared to the rest of his competition... not to mention he is actually contributing on a night-in, night-out basis.
And finally... Jokić leads the league in Player Efficiency Rating (PER) at 31.3. PER (14th-best individual season in NBA history) shows us how efficient a player is when he is on the court and returns the number in a per-minute rating. Jokić is not new to leading in this statistic as he has led basketball in PER since 2020 and owns 4 of the 15 most efficient seasons in NBA history since the stat began to be tracked (his 2021-22 MVP campaign is number 1 in NBA history at 32.8).
Bottom Line: So if you needed any more evidence on why Jokić is the clear MVP... I would ask you to go watch a game of his against your favorite team, I am sure he probably torched them in one way or another. Again, this is no knock on his MVP-caliber counterparts, this just shows how dominant Jokić truly is. Other candidates certainly have solid arguments; unfortunately, they can't compete against the Joker. MVP!
ROTY: Victor Wembanyama - San Antonio Spurs
Runner-Up: Chet Holmgren - Oklahoma City Thunder
The Eye Test: Ladies and gentlemen... the second coming of Tim Duncan has arrived in all his glory. Victor Wembanyama has not only exceeded the hype (so far) coming into the league, he has done things I never thought I would ever see from someone who is 7'4". (Incoming over-exaggerations) He can shoot like KD, dribble like Kyrie, defend like Gobert, and finish like Lebron. Not only has he been an absolute treat to watch on the hardwood, but his IQ and the way he commands this young Spurs team while on the court is something to behold.
For the Nerds: Besides the fact that Wemby leads all rookies in PPG, RPG, SPG, and BPG (leads the NBA in blocks too), he is also top 15 in PER (13th), and is top 25 in VORP (24th) already as a rookie... not to mention that VORP is tough to accumulate on a team that has yet to reach 15 wins yet. If this wasn't enough, he is also the first player since Jusuf Nurkić to record a 5x5 in a game and second rookie to do so (shoutout Jamaal Tinsley).
Bottom Line: So yeah... this race isn't close and if someone tries to tell you Holmgren is the ROTY front-runner, they are either delusional, a troll, or a Thunder fan who doesn't know ball. VW should be the unanimous ROTY and maybe a contender in other races (keep reading).
DPOY: Victor Wembanyama - San Antonio Spurs
Runner Up: Rudy Gobert - Minnesota Timberwolves
Before I begin with my explanation there are a few things you should know...
I am a diehard Spurs fan, born this way.
The NBA has to have another player in the GOAT conversation, why not start the Wemby narrative as soon as possible?
No rookie has ever won DPOY, has to be a first for everything
Ok, so let's begin on the eye test...
The Eye Test: For starters, Wembanyama's in the paint and on the perimeter is beyond intimidating. I cannot count how many times I have seen a shooter think about taking or take an outside jumper only to have Wemby and his long arms storm out from the paint and force a turnover, block the shot, or have the shooter pass out to another man. What Wembanyama does and the way he controls the opponent's pace is rather impressive for a 20-year-old in his first season... I mean, just watch this quick compilation of some of the things he can do on the perimeter.
For the Nerds: Well considering the Spurs are 29th in defensive rating when he is not playing and slightly above the league average when he is on the court should tell you a little bit of the story. If you would like more, he is also 10th in the league in Defensive Win Shares per 36 minutes on a team that has some of the worst defensive players in the league outside of himself and maybe Vassell. Still not convinced? No worries! Victor is also 4th in Defensive Box Plus/Minus, 6th in steal percentage (amongst bigs), 1st in blocks percentage, and is second in defensive rating (only behind Gobert). He is the only player in the NBA to be top 10 in all these categories, I mean if that doesn't scream DPOY, I'm not sure what does.
Bottom Line: The narrative is there, a chance at history is in the balance, the stats back him up; there isn't much else to say. Yes, I know I am a Spurs fan, diehard at that, but the eye test and stats don't lie. Victor Wembanyama IS the best defensive player in the league, and it's time we accept the fact that, if healthy, he could win the next 10 DPOY's in a row. Yes, I know he said that, "Rudy (Gobert) has a very good chance of winning it this year, and it would be deserved"; however, that's just him being humble. Wemby is the clear, best defensive player in the league, and it is already time to start recognizing him as such.
MIP: Coby White - Chicago Bulls
Runner Up: Tyrese Maxey - Philadelphia 76ers
Now here is a pick of mine that most people are probably going to disagree with out of all my picks. Maxey and White are having career years; one was expected from last year's campaign, the other was completely out of the blue considering his previous season's struggles. Let me tell you exactly why:
The Eye Test: Before I use facts and stats to thwart your "Maxey MIP" agendas, I would like to pick out the surface-level things I like about White. First, he is just a loveable player and a great guy. He has stepped up in Lavine's absence and has given Chicago a sliver of hope for maybe 5-6 games in the playoffs. He has ran their offense the best he can and provides a much-needed energy boost from the guard spot. So there's that...
For the Nerds: Now here is where we can truly determine if he is worthy of the Most Improved Player Award. Comparing the two frontrunners to last year's stats, we see on a basic level that White has improved his PPG, APG, FG%, and 3PT% by greater numbers than Maxey has. That alone should be a good indicator of someone more deserving of "Most Improved Player". On an advanced level, White has been able to be as productive and efficient as Maxey has with a worse supporting cast... Plus I like Coby, so there's that.
Bottom Line: You could really go either way with these two for MIP and I wouldn't be upset at either pick. Both players have dramatically improved within their roles and have had amazing seasons. I believe Maxey has the edge with most voters because of his all-star selection and the way he has stepped in for Embiid as the Sixers' leader. White has also stepped into a bigger role, but he did not earn an all-star bid, and let's be honest here... this Bulls team is still Demar's, like it or not. Again, my bias shows here a little bit... I like Coby more than I do Maxey but that's just me.
Sixth Man of the Year: Naz Reid - Minnesota Timberwolves
Runner Up: Malik Monk - Sacramento Kings
The Sixth Man of the Year award is usually a tightly contested race year in, year out. This year is no different. My three frontrunners for the award are Naz Reid, Malik Monk, and Tim Hardaway Jr.. All three great players have stepped into the sixth man role quite nicely; however, there are just a few things that Timberwolves Legend Naz Reid does better that the other two don't.
The Eye Test: Naz Reid wins. That simple. The other two win too, just not like Reid. Reid's firey competitiveness off the bench is one of the main reasons why the Timberwolves are fighting for first in the wild Western Conference. Just watching the games you can tell once Reid steps on the court, the Timberwolves just become a better unit, especially on defense. When Naz is out there with Gobert, it's pretty much game over for the opposing teams. Offense becomes impossible. Reid isn't just an elite defensive player though; he can shoot and shoot at an elite clip. The other two candidates are pretty one-dimensional, which isn't bad for a sixth man. Sometimes all you need is that one-dimensional player that can come off the bench and get buckets. Reid can get you those buckets if needed and gives you elite defense on top of that.
For the Nerds: How elite of defense you might ask? Well for starters, Reid is 3rd in defensive rating. Only behind his teammate, Rudy Gobert, and the DPOY frontrunner Victor Wembanyama. Reid is also 15th in defensive win shares while playing 500 fewer minutes than the next player in the top 15 (excluding Wembanyama). Lastly, Reid is leading all Sixth Man of the Year candidates in blocks and steals. Now you take all of that and add it to his shooting and his ability to space the floor for Minnesota and you have yourself a surefire Sixth Man of the Year.
Bottom Line: Reid, like my other picks, has all the qualities needed to win his respective award: narrative, eye test, and advanced analytics. Not to mention the memes of him are some of my favorites. Originally before writing this section, I was leaning more toward Monk because of his efficient playmaking and scoring; however, dabbling in Basketball Reference for a couple of minutes plus the realization that he is one of the main reasons why Minnesota is primed for a title run, the choice is clear. Reid for Sixth Man of the Year.
Coach of the Year: Mark Daigneault - Oklahoma City Thunder
Runner Up: Chris Finch - Minnesota Timberwolves
The Eye Test: I don't really need to preface this. Chris Finch is a great coach, but he also has some of the most elite defensive players in the league and Anthony Edwards. This is not a knock on him as a coach but with that cast, he should be winning a lot of games. Anyways... Daigneault has led the second-youngest team in the NBA to an almost guaranteed 50-win season (47 at the time of publication) and a shot at the number 1 seed in the West. Unreal. Yes, I know he has SGA, Holmgren, the Williams duo, and company; but, the way he has developed these young stars is unreal. We all knew it was bound to happen eventually, we just didn't know it was going to happen this quickly.
For the Nerds: The argument for Daigneault is pretty easy to fight for... Best record in the conference with the second-youngest team in the league. But if you would like more, let me give you a few more stats to wrap up this article:
The Thunder are shooting 50% from the field as a team (2nd in NBA) and nearly 40% from three (1st).
The Thunder's average margin of victory (point differential) currently sits at around +8 (2nd behind Boston's dominant +11.2).
The Thunder are 3rd in offensive rating and 6th in defensive rating.
The Thunder are holding opponents to under 45% shooting (3rd in NBA).
Bottom Line: This race isn't really close. Daigneault has led this young Thunder team to a potential title race so early in their final rebuilding stage. His offensive and defensive game plans have set up the Thunder for success in every game they have played so far this season. My only worry is that Daigneault won't be able to prepare this young Thunder team for an intense postseason push. Only time will tell with that prediction. Oh... I also forgot to mention that the Thunder have three more first-round picks in this year's upcoming draft. So it is safe to assume that we will see Daigneault win a few more of these awards in the near future.
So there you have it! These players are my picks for the NBA awards this season (Lebron is Clutch Player of the Year too btw). Let me know what I got right and what I got wrong. Finally, make sure to follow us on our socials (YouTube, Instagram, X, TikTok) and go engage with us there! We appreciate all the love and support!