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As the college football season heats up, the race for a coveted spot in the College Football Playoff intensifies. Each week, top programs fight to solidify their standing, hoping to secure a chance to compete for a National Championship. Some schools, powered by strong resumes and dominant performances, are firmly in the playoff conversation. Meanwhile, others sit on the edge, tantalizingly close but just missing the cut. In this breakdown, I'll dive into the programs battling for a playoff berth and examine the teams that are on the outside looking in, desperate to prove they belong; plus we will be looking at potential first-round matchups for the College Football Playoff.
By Will Glover | September 24, 2024
Photo by Steven King - Icon Sportswire
First-round byes (Current TYB Ranking)
No. 1 Overall: Texas Longhorns (1)
The Texas Longhorns, in our humble and completely unbiased opinions, are the best and deepest team in college football... and it's not even close. I know the hype that comes out of Austin is mainly from Arch Manning and the Manning legacy; however, this Texas defense ranks 2 in defensive efficiency and has flat-out dominated every offense they have seen this season. Sure... the offense looks amazing, even without their Heisman candidate, Quinn Ewers, but if Texas wants to compete for a National Championship, they will still need to have their star QB back and healthy. Texas is projected to win the SEC by our analysts and subsequently matched up against the winner of the No. 9 Hurricanes vs. No. 8 Volunteers game... not an easy second-round matchup as compared to Georgia's projected playoff matchups in UNLV and Boston College. It almost makes sense for Texas to lose the SEC championship game to get this cakewalk schedule to the semifinals. Regardless, Texas shouldn't play for the 5 seed and they won't.
No. 2 Overall: Ohio State Buckeyes (3)
Photo by Phil Harrison - USA TODAY Sports
With the number 2 overall seed and bye, it's the Ohio State Buckeyes. While I am not too high on this Ohio State team, I see no reason why they won't win the Big Ten and keep their number 2/3 ranking throughout the season. The Buckeyes have one of the most efficient offenses in the country and while their defense isn't the greatest, most of the Big Ten offenses aren't that good either. Ohio State's biggest tests will be @ Penn State and vs. Michigan and whoever they play in the Big Ten Championship game. With that being said, again, I see no reason why Ohio State can't and won't win the Big Ten, giving them this heavily desired No. 2 seed in the first-ever 12-man CFB Playoff. They will face off against one of two top SEC teams in Alabama or Missouri.
No. 3 Overall: Utah Utes (12)
Here is the first "out-of-place" playoff team because of the new seeding rules. For those who may be confused/unfamiliar, let me explain real quick:
The top four seeds in the new playoff format are given to the SEC, Big Ten, Big XII, and ACC conference winners. There is then one additional seed given to the highest-ranked Group 5 team. They can fall within seeds 5-12 depending on how high they're ranked. the remaining seven seeds are then given to the highest-ranked CFP committee teams.
Now that that's out of the way, let me introduce the Big XII champion, Utah Utes. Led by fossil, Cameron Rising (assuming he is healthy), this Utah team boasts one of the most prolific defenses in the country while also having a potentially explosive offense (assuming Rising is healthy). Utah hasn't had the most impressive wins on their schedule; however, it's the Big XII and every game in that conference is a battle. Utah is projected by us to win the Big XII over Oklahoma State, therefore taking this number 3 seed in our CFB Playoff. They will be tasked with playing the winner of the Ducks and Rebels... not an easy task as a team that was given a bye. Should be a fun matchup to watch in December!
No. 4 Overall: Boston College Eagles (23)
Photo from Boston College Athletics
Here is our first "shocker". Now... if you watch our latest episode you will know that TYB's love for Boston College isn't a surprise. Led by HC Bill O'Brien and QB Thomas Castellanos (Tommy Touchdowns), this BC team boasts a top-20 offense in a relatively weak ACC. You put those two ingredients together and you get a team that is willing and able to win you a conference championship. Of course, they will have to go through Louisville, SMU, and Miami/Clemson to win the ACC; however, for this team, it is very doable. Personally, I am not a fan of any ACC team making it far in these playoffs, but after watching the Eagles almost pull off an insane upset in Columbia a few weeks ago, I think they are the most primed to take on a top-10 opponent. Again, Miami looks good for the ACC too, I'm just not sold on them quite yet. Until Miami can prove or BC can disprove me, I will be sticking with Coach O'Brien and the Boston College Eagles.
First-round matchups
No. 12 UNLV Rebels (NR) @ No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (2)
Winner Plays: @ No. 4 Boston College
Now we get into the first-round games. These games will take place at the higher-seeded opponent's home field (cinema) in which the winner will play the bye-round teams in a New Year's Six Bowl Game. So starting off... we have the highest ranked, non-Power 4 conference winner taking on the best Group 6 team (it won't always be like this, but probably most of the time). Assuming Texas beats Georgia for the 2nd time, this will be Georgia's chance to get an extra home game in late December. Georgia's path to the semifinals from here is pretty easy too, as they get to play Boston College after beating UNLV. It almost makes sense for the SEC championship teams to lose that game so they can play a weaker UNLV and BC squad - whereas Texas (assuming they win the SEC) would have to face off against Miami or Tennessee, two potentially better squads. With that being said... yeah... Georgia by a million. This game won't be close as Georgia's defense is just too overpowered against a weak UNLV offense. UNLV's defense has a chance to make this a close game, but in the end, I just can't see Georgia making as many mistakes as UNLV would. It's Georgia. It always was Georgia.
(UPDATE: UNLV QB, Matthew Sluka quits the team this morning (9/25) over an NIL dispute... so bring in Boise State here now. Nothing else changes, Georgia by a million still)
No. 9 Miami Hurricanes (7) @ No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers (6)
Winner Plays: @ No. 1 Texas
Photo by Brian Bahr - Getty Images
As you just read in the paragraph before, this game means a whole lot more for the SEC Champion than we think. These two squads present a much tougher challenge for the eventual 1 seed. I believe that if this was the matchup we see in December, this would be a game for the ages. Here we have the highest-rated defense in Tennessee taking on the highest-rated offense in Miami. This game would eventually come down to the QB play and it would be exciting to see this game unfold. For reference - Miami is averaging 52.5 points per game this season whereas Tennessee is allowing just a touchdown a game (while having played two top-15 teams). Again, it will come down to who executes in the clutch, as it always does, but I think that this game would be an instant classic and one that would be talked about for generations to come. Gimme Tennessee to come out on top and play Texas in the battle of the UTs. Winner gets the naming rights to "UT".
No. 11 Oregon Ducks (9) @ No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels (4)
Winner Plays: @ No. 3 Utah
I am not really sold on Oregon just yet... probably because they almost lost to Idaho and Boise State at home (friendly reminder that my alma mater, ACU, just lost to Idaho, 27-24 last week...). So yeah - not convinced. This Dillon Gabriel-led Ducks squad is wildly inefficient on both sides of the ball and doesn't have someone on either side who is a real game-changer. With that being said, as of right now, they are ranked at 9 and earn the 11th seed because this is a "if the season ended today" list. The Ducks would have to face up against a dominant and highly efficient Ole Miss team that is led by Heisman Candidate, Jaxson Dart. Dart, unlike Gabriel, IS a game changer and a damn elite one at that. This Ole Miss offense combined with their stifling defense makes this choice an easy one for me: Ole Miss by a million. Ole Miss, like Georgia, sees an easier road to the semifinals than most other teams on this list too; granted they have to play an extra game beforehand, and anything can happen in that 60 minutes.
No. 10 Missouri Tigers (8) @ No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide (5)
Winner Plays: @ No. 2 Ohio State
To round out the first-round slate, we have two more SEC teams in the playoffs. It seems as if this will be a common occurrence whilst conference realignment continues. This game would be a rematch of their October 26th meeting in Tuscaloosa and like other SEC matchups, will be electric in December. I don't have too much to say about this matchup primarily because we will see this one in a few weeks but also because I have no idea where Mizzou is as a team right now. They have one of the most experienced rosters in college football, led by 5th-year senior Brady Cook and star receiver Luther Burden III. They just can't seem to put anything inspiring together though... it is quite confusing in all honesty. On paper, this Tigers team should be close to Texas and Georgia, but on the field? They are making games against Boston College (who is good in my opinion) and Vanderbilt competitive. AT HOME! Yea... I just don't know where to put them right now - their potential is extremely high but their execution leaves a lot to be desired. If this Tigers team doesn't figure it out by late October - look for a different team to face Alabama. As of right now though... Alabama takes this one handily.
First Four Out
Penn State Nittany Lions (10)
Even though our rankings have Penn State at 10, they are left out of the new playoffs because of a potential Boston College ACC title winner. You can argue that this would kick Miami out of the top 10 and yes, you're probably right; however, it all depends on how high Miami can climb before they have to face BC in the ACC Championship game. So for that reason alone, Penn State gets the short end of the stick in this CFP 'What-If".
Michigan Wolverines (11)
Leaving the Big Ten and ACC out of the playoffs will be a recurring event in my future lists and the CFP committee's too. Michigan is no exception to the rule. Even after a strong win at home against USC, Michigan just doesn't have the roster to defend their National Championship. They are towards the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency and their star back, Donovan Edwards, has seemingly disappeared from the spotlight - the first EA College Football Cover Athlete Curse. Even if Edwards was dominating like he was expected to do, I just don't see everyone else on that roster doing their part to take this team back to the National Championship game. Unfortunately for Michigan fans, I'm out (and so are they).
USC Trojans (13)
Pretty much the same as Michigan, plus since you lost to Michigan, I am not going to put you above Michigan. It's that simple. Ironically enough for USC, their defense is what is keeping them close in these rankings. Their offense has not been elite against ranked teams and their star QB, Miller Moss, just hasn't gotten the job done like he has been advertised in the past. This USC team just doesn't look like a legitimate contender and for that reason, they stay out of the College Football Playoff.
LSU Tigers (14)
LOL. For the same reason that I am putting USC below Michigan, I am putting LSU below USC. You can't lose to someone and then expect to be ranked higher than them. I know the committees of old have done that time and again but I refuse to do such a thing. Like Michigan, LSU just doesn't have the offensive firepower to compete with teams like Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Georgia, and they most certainly don't have the defense to compete either. Goodness... LSU's defense is abysmal. It reminds me of the 2010s Texas Longhorns defenses which would without fail lose games for the Longhorns. This LSU defense couldn't stop a sneeze with a 40-ply tissue. Miserable, miserable, miserable. From this point out, I wouldn't even look for LSU on any of my lists. They're cooked.
Next Four Out
Boise State Broncos (NR) (Yes, I probably should include them in the First Four)
For the committee, the decision on which Group 6 team should make the playoff will come down to UNLV and Boise State... maybe Liberty. That decision will more than likely be made on October 25th (shoutout to my parents' anniversary date), when UNLV and Boise State face off in Idaho. The winner of that game will more than likely be selected to represent the Group 6 in the College Football Playoff. With that being said, I believe that UNLV is more suited to face an elite team like Georgia in the playoff; however, Boise State played Oregon well and has perhaps the best running back in college in Ashton Jeanty. If Jeanty can get loose, he can take over games and help BSU pull off a Cinderella story. We at TYB are BIG Ashton Jeanty fans, the question is... "Can the rest of that team back him up?" We'll find out soon enough.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (15)
I am SICK and TIRED of having Notre Dame ranked but this is Ryan's rankings I am using right now, so I have no choice but to include them here. The only argument I need against Notre Dame is that you lost to NIU at home while managing to score less than 15 points... embarrassing. Plus I just hate seeing Notre Dame and Florida State in the top 10 EVERY. SINGLE. FREAKING. YEAR! Please stop ranking these clowns until they actually play and beat formidable opponents. Thanks.
Louisville Cardinals (16)
While the top 15 rankings belong to mostly SEC and Big Ten schools, the 16-25 slots belong to the ACC and Big XII lol. Louisville is a tough one. They have dominated in every game this season; however, they haven't played anyone noteworthy. They get the chance to prove themselves this weekend when they travel to South Bend to take on Notre Dame, and yes, I know I am very low on Notre Dame but it is still a tough place to play as an opponent... it's like Kyle Field (except for the last 3 seasons).
Clemson Tigers (17)
If I have to explain why Clemson shouldn't be in the College Football Playoff, then you probably shouldn't be reading this article... Clemson is mid... BEYOND MID! But they are in Ryan's top 25, so they have to be mentioned. I am praying on Dabo's downfall. Clemson sucks and they deserve to be left off this list and the top 25 every season until they can start recruiting and taking advantage of NIL.
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